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Nfib index10/13/2023 ![]() ![]() For perspective, the peak last February was 5.4% while the five-year average is 3% and the one-year average is 4.7%. The core number increased 4.2% year over year, again in-line with the expectation but a rise compared to June’s 4.1% jump. For perspective, the peak last June 7% while the five-year average is 3.2% and the one-year average is 4.9%. The headline number grew 3.3% year over year, in-line with the consensus expectation but above the prior month’s 3% gain. Bureau of Economic Analysis (“BEA”) released its Personal Consumption Expenditures (“PCE”) data for July. That should support a rally in bonds (where short sellers have been pitching higher rates) as well as stocks (where investor sentiment has been souring over the last month). That’s back in line with the historical norms.Īll of this points to the Fed not needing to continue raising interest rates. In addition, the year-over-year gains in wages are holding above the pace of inflation growth as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In the month following the positive headline reports, total job growth has been revised lower by a total of 423k jobs or 32.5k per month. The average monthly gain over the last year has been 257k.Įven more interesting has been the monthly release of Two-Month Payroll Net Revisions over the last 13 months. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy added 187k jobs in August compared to the downwardly revised 157k number in July and the 472k gain in January.
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